The NBA draft looms just around the corner

Posted on June 2, 2009 by John Harrison

After what seemed like years of hype, speculation and plate-smashing antics, the NFL Draft finally came and went. All the prediction analysts can now go back into hibernation. Draft boards can be put back in storage. And finally, fans can get back to watching actual sporting events.

Oh wait, scratch that. We wouldn’t want to deny the men on the hardwood the same respect we give to those on the gridiron, now would we? Heaven forbid we fail to endlessly dramatize and totally overhype the upcoming NBA draft just as much as we did for the NFL.

Now I know David Stern won’t officially announce Blake Griffin’s name with the first pick until June 25. But let’s be honest, we were already discussing the Detroit Lions’ first selection possibilities when they hit 0-8 last November – six months ago.

I’m just trying to keep things fair.

So in order to avoid any sense of injustice, here are a few musings to ponder as the NBA draft approaches…

One: Griffin, Rubio and then what? Barring any major discoveries or significant injuries in the next few months, Oklahoma center and national player of the year Blake Griffin will go first in the draft, and Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio will go second. The number three pick is where the discussion truly begins. And in what is generally considered a weak class, general managers and coaches with lottery picks will likely have a difficult time deciding which players are worth the big bucks. Thus, after the second selection, don’t be surprised to see some unexpected, potentially controversial picks in the first round.

Two: Don’t count on the current list of prospects being the final list. A significant number of underclassmen who have declared for the draft have yet to hire an agent, thus reserving the right to return to the college game next season. Among them are top prospects Gerald Henderson of Duke, Tyreke Evans of Memphis and Jeff Teague of Wake Forest. If a number of these guys opt to return to school, an already weak class of candidates could become even weaker as June approaches.

Three: As is the growing trend, expect to hear few seniors’ names called in round one. The first senior selected this year will probably be Eric Maynor, the versatile point guard from VCU, somewhere in the middle of the first round. After that, there really aren’t any guarantees. Terrence Williams and Darren Collison will probably slip into the first round, too. The underclassmen and foreign players continue to dominate the top of the draft boards again this year. That being said…

Four: Far less international talent in ‘09 than in recent years. Other than Ricky Rubio, a breakout star for Spain in the Beijing Olympics, there isn’t much to write home about. Rubio will certainly go in the first few selections, but it’s hard to see any other international players emerging as lottery picks. Israel’s Omri Casspi and Sweden’s Jonas Jerebko are the only others even worth mentioning on opening round boards.

Five: Keep an eye out for Brandon Jennings. While we’re talking international, it’s important to note Jenning’s decision to skip college and play professionally in Italy for the past year. Since the league banned kids making the straight from high school to the pros, the lottery prospect out of Los Angeles is the first big-name player to play overseas for a year before becoming eligible for the NBA – but he won’t be the last. It will be interesting to see how coaches and GMs treat his decision when it comes time to make selections. Will they value the professional experience he gained in Italy, or will they pass him over for proven NCAA talent? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Six: It was the Big East’s Year, but it’ll be the ACC’s draft. Duke’s Henderson, UNC’s Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, and Wake Forest’s James Johnson are all projected to fall in the lottery. When you add potential first round picks Teague and Tyler Hansbrough (though it’s a long shot for a Psycho T), this is shaping up to be one of the ACC’s most impressive draft classes. Don’t sleep on the PAC-10 either, with players like Arizona State’s James Harden and Arizona’s Jordan Hill climbing up many mock draft boards.

Seven: Where are the big men? Hasheem Thabeet … and … well? There really isn’t much talent at the center position this year, so expect a struggle at the top to nab the Tanzanian shot-blocking machine from UConn (note that Griffin will be playing much more of a power forward role, so we’re not including him here). After Thabeet, B.J. Mullins from Ohio State and Hill from Arizona are the only guys who might be able to hang with the likes of Yao, Garnett and Howard in the years to come.

Eight: In what order will the point guards be selected? Whereas the crop of big guys is rather pitiful, GMs are drooling over the class of point guards in the draft. With talent like Rubio, Lawson, Jennings and Stephen Curry from Davidson, it will be interesting to see what teams will value more when selecting the man they want to run the show. Will they opt for superior talent and overlook the inexperience of young players like Rubio and Jennings? Or will they gamble on young unproven talent with enourmous upside? Again, only time will tell.

Nine: Will Griffin be an Oden-like bust or Rose-like star? The top picks in the past two drafts have had drastically different opening campaigns in the NBA.

By most accounts, big man Greg Oden has been a total bust thus far, to the point where folks in Portland are simply excited about the fact that he’s moderately healthy again and coming off the bench.

On the other hand, Derek Rose has emerged as one of the top young guards in the game and has been the perfect sidekick for Ben Gordon in Chicago, Ill.

Ten: Way, way too early lottery predictions. And finally, my incredibly presumptuous, shot-in-the-dark forecast for the lottery picks on draft day. Here goes nothing…

1. Blake Griffin, 2. Ricky Rubio, 3. Hasheem Thabeet, 4. Jordan Hill, 5. Brandon Jennings, 6. James Harden, 7. James Johnson, 8. DeMar DeRozan, 9. Tyreke Evans, 10. Gerald Henderson, 11. Ty Lawson, 12. Earl Clark, 13. Stephen Curry, 14. Eric Maynor.